Industry Forecast: Where I see the industry in 10 years

Industry forecast: 04
Ngozi Bolin, Shinkafa Founder

By Ngozi Bolin, Founder, Shinkafa Inc.

Our founder Ngozi Bolin, began making hair and skin care oils as a child in war-torn Nigeria where the need for these oils were on a primal level. After an overwhelming demand from friends and family, in 2006 she began to formulate her products for a commercial launch. Her message was simple, stop using products with harmful chemicals and embrace your natural beauty.

As I began putting my formulations to commercial application from 2006, what I encountered was an entrenched resistance to my vision of avoiding harmful chemicals. Nowadays, there is a sustained and encouraging march towards that vision by the industry.

We still have ways to go, but, it is a good trajectory. Here is where I believe the industry will be in next 10 years.

1. Industry Forecast: By the Numbers


In November 2016, Lucintel, a leading global market research firm, released a skincare trend report forecasting that the global skincare industry would reach $135 billion by 2021. The biggest segments inside the industry are projected to be anti-aging, body lotion, sun protection, and multi-functional skin cream.

Additionally, Lucintel predicts that the global anti-aging market in both skincare and haircare is expected to reach an estimated $66.2 billion by 2023.


In March 2018 Mordor Intelligence issued a report suggesting the global haircare market would reach USD 106.57 billion by the end of 2023. The report mentions specific growth in primary grooming products for both men and women, and a significant uptick in the effects of aging.

Industry forecast: 08

2. People are living longer, healthier lives

The USA’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in its 2016 annual report concluded that Americans are living longer and fewer are dying from major diseases like heart diseases and cancer now compared to 40 years ago. In its March 2018 report, the Centraal Burea voor de Statistiekof the Netherlands note that by the year 2040, people will not only live longer, but will do so in good health and without physical limitations.

Industry forecast: 02

3. Aging is a privilege

If you notice a recurrent “aging” theme, you are not nuts. People are living longer worldwide. Allure Magazine in its August 14, 2017 issue stated that it will no longer use the term “anti-aging.” I applaud their thinking.

Aging is indeed a privilege and not everyone attains that, but we also live in a culture where aging is dreaded.

In my Igbo culture age is celebrated. Whatever the words we use, we are marching towards aging and we must take better care of ourselves, our bodies, our skins and our hair in a way to ensure lasting, effective and healthy impact.

Industry forecast: 06

4. Age gracefully

To enjoy life fully as we age, it is important to start early in taking care of our skins and hair. Quick fixes are not the answer.

It is a holistic approach that incorporates topical applications, what we ingest and our environment. We need to have better rejuvenating and effective products on the market as early as possible. What we do to our skin in our teenage years can have repercussions later in life.

We can’t do a great deal of damage to ourselves and expect to fix it when we get to that point when the damage affects our quality of life. So, it is my forecast that health awareness is what is and will drive the market going forward.

So, what does that mean? It does not necessarily mean organic products.

While that trend is in the uptick, consumers will begin to reject heavy metals associated with some organic products, such as such as mercury, lead, cadmium, arsenic, if not properly handled. What that really means is less chemicals in our haircare and skincare products and a continued and more forceful march towards formulations without harmful chemicals.

Industry forecast: 03

5. Consumers are more educated

There was a time when people felt that if an ingredient had a long unpronounceable name, it meant that it must be good.

That fad is on a steep decline.

Folks are a lot smarter. Consumers are reading labels and are on the lookout for ingredients that they’d rather avoid, such as parabens, hydroquinone, formaldehyde, and phthalates, to name a few.

Consumers will not just be products free from harmful chemicals, but will demand products that have efficacy. Consumers will start calling out products that simply have a pinch of the active ingredients, so as to claim it on the ingredient deck, knowing full well that the ingredient level is of little to no value to the formulation.

Industry forecast: 10

6. Skin and haircare should be simple

I’ve never understood why there are just so many sets of products for one just part of the body and another haul for just another part of the body. Is it not the same skin? Does one’s skin change overnight? Have we become changelings? The same about the hair.

There is absolutely no reason to have about a dozen different products just to hydrate a dry brittle hair with breakage and split ends, when a hair masque with deep conditioner every two weeks, an anti-frizz charcoal detangling shampoo, an anti-frizz conditioner and a leave-in conditioner and hair polish to finish, should not handle those effectively.

For the skin, if one is looking to hydrate, why not an excellent body wash followed with a good body oil and/or body cream? If you are dealing with raccoon eyes or blemishes, you can introduce a blemish cream that should handle stretch marks, “crows” feet and the like with an effect stretchmark and blemish cream. Why one cream or oil for the day, another for night and another for the eye and yet another for the forehead?

I expect a push for consolidation and simplicity.

Industry forecast: 09

7. The rise of skin hydration

Another trend that I see is a move to using more body oil and all-over body hydration like a body cream with SPF. Not just for the face but for the entire body. A good oil or hydrating cream should be a must for every household and this is a market that I expect to grow exponentially.

Excellent oils often have anti-inflammatory properties and antioxidants, which can help prevent free radical damage and stem the aging effects. They are excellent for dry skin, sagging skin, inflamed skin, cracked skin and itchy skin.

No, excellent oils do not make your face breakout. Quite the contrary.

So, I believe this also means less emphasis on only one part of the body to the detriment of the rest of the body. People will understand that hydrating the skin does not just mean the face, but the entire body.

I expect this trend to grow in western countries, especially where people have been content to simply use creams and oils on the face only. Entire body hydration is where I see the market headed for both men and women.

Have you wondered why as a baby you got oiled or creamed all over and then you grow up and stop? Celebrities are a bit ahead of this game. The rest of us should join too.

Your body will thank you for it.

Final thoughts

As the population ages and as awareness of ingredients grows, I see the trend continuing towards healthy and sustainable haircare and skincare products without harmful chemicals. Those products must prove to the consumer to be highly effective.

Consumers are prepared to pay more for products that are highly effective and do no harm to us and our planet.

Shinkafa is proud to already be on this path.


Select your currency
USD United States (US) dollar
EUR Euro